Efforts to manage—or in this instance, resist oversight of—prediction markets are further complicated by connections between the industry and President Donald Trump’s relatives. Donald Trump Jr. serves as a compensated consultant for Kalshi and holds investments in Polymarket. Suspicious trading patterns observed prior to recent U.S. military engagements in Iran have also raised concerns that individuals with government ties may be exploiting confidential information. Although some platforms have adopted measures to curb insider trading, states remain skeptical of self-regulation by these companies.
David Duvenaud, University of Toronto
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