Recent data confirms the pattern is industry-wide. In 2025, 85% of VC-backed tokens traded below their launch price (84.7% of 118 tracked TGEs; median drawdown over 70%). Nearly 60% fell below their private fundraising valuations within six months (Lopez, citing Messari). The raise-launch-spike-decline pattern is not failing at one company. It is failing at scale. The temporary spike only hardens the biases of those involved, making the eventual decline harder to see coming and harder to accept.
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